The Milwaukee Brewers made their big free agency splash yesterday when they signed 34 year old Kyle Lohse to a 3 year, $33 million contract, earning him $11 million a year plus $300K more in incentives per season; that is $5 million less per season than Annibal Sanchez will be getting for the next five years.
Upon Lohse's arrival though I've seen numerous fans insist this deal was a bad idea, saying Doug Melvin has essentially added another Jeff Suppan to the Brewers rotation. Jeff Suppan, if you don't remember, was that albatross of a veteran presence who followed up a strong World Series performance with the 2006 St Louis Cardinals with 4 years of .500 or worse baseball and an ERA which, at its lowest, was 4.62. That contract, for the record, was a 4 year, $42 million deal, netting Suppan roughly $10.5 million a season, $500K less than Lohse will be getting for his 3 years.
Now some things have to be pointed out here:
1. Jeff Suppan was 32 at the time of this signing, he had eleven seasons of MLB experience under his belt and only once had a season with a sub 4.00 ERA
2. Jeff Suppan was coming off of his eighth strait season of 30+ starts, which makes him pretty damn reliable
3. Jeff Suppan pitched for the Cardinals before this deal, so he brought experience within the division to Milwaukee
Of course I could Armchair GM my ass off right now defending Doug Melvin's worst signing but there's no real point. Suppan was a bust in Milwaukee, he even choked in the post season, and even though he made all his starts, he was not the kind of workhorse the Brewers needed to follow Ben Sheets. And I'm sure all Brewers fans were thrilled in 2010 when Jeff Suppan was finally released, finally ending the saddest saga of the Melvin era.
Now, before I address Lohse, I want to discuss a very similar signing to both Lohse and Suppan:
Right before Suppan got released, before the 2010 season that is, Doug Melvin signed another veteran starter. 33 year old Randy Wolf, who was widely considered top of a mediocre class of free agent pitchers, agreed to a 3 year, $29.75 million deal, roughly $10 million a year. Say what you will about Wolf's hideous 2012 campaign, but Wolf was an upgrade and a half over Jeff Suppan, and he beat the pitcher Doug Melvin almost signed that off season, John Lackey, both financially and statistically.
Wolf was more than an upgrade actually. He, like Suppan, was coming off a few seasons of making every one of his starts, and had a lower career ERA than Suppan, not to mention an All Star appearance, and was one year removed from his career best year pitching the Dodgers to the NLCS. Wolf had about twelve years of MLB experience, most of it spent in the National League, and had, like Suppan, been an established post season presence.
The next thing I want to point out is that Wolf's tenure in Milwaukee was more than decent. It is true that his 4.17 ERA was relatively high in 2010 but in 2011 he turned in a $10 million season going 13-10 with a 3.69 ERA, oh and he also made every start in both 2010 and 2011. 2012, however, as we would learn after his release, was problematic mostly on account of a torn ligament in his elbow, however Wolf was a trooper and made 24/25 starts before departing Wisconsin.
The reason why I bring up Randy Wolf is because he is a remarkably better candidate to compare the Kyle Lohse signing to, I mean, I understand Suppan and Lohse both came from the Cardinals, but that is really their only comparison.
Kyle Lohse has had an interesting MLB career, playing in Minnesota and Philadelphia and posting an inflated ERA for a few years, despite making most if not all of his starts. 2007 was one of the lowest points in Lohse's career however, posting an ERA of 4.62 between Cincinnati and Philadelphia and going 9-12.
Was his career over though? Of course not! He was brought over to the Cardinals where Dave Duncan gave him that late career resurgence he is famous for. And suddenly Lohse was a workhorse again, posting the lowest ERA of his career while in St Louis and leading the Redbirds to a World Series championship. By the end of his tenure in St Louis, which was admittedly accompanied by two below average seasons due to injury, Lohse was making $10.25 million a year, spending three of his five seasons pitching with an ERA below 4.00 and having at least 14 wins, while starting all of his games.
Oh and a side note about Dave Duncan, if Lohse needed him to be good, last year would have shown this.
Lohse will be coming to Milwaukee at the age of 34, after two seasons of making all his starts, having experience in the division, sporting a lower ERA than Suppan and Wolf, making $1-2 million more than Suppan and Wolf, and a $500K raise from last year, and like both Suppan and Wolf, being a proven post season presence.
So for $1 million more, the Brewers have an older, but better workhorse, with the same MLB experience, and signed to essentially the same contract as both the workhorses before him. And there is one more thing, unlike Suppan and Wolf, who both were signed one season removed from their career best years at the time(16-10 3.57 ; 11-7 3.23), Lohse is just coming off of his(16-3 2.86), and his second best was in 2011(14-8 3.39).
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