2013 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot Predictions

I predict the 2013 class of the MLB Hall of Fame will be an interesting one, but who doesn't?  We have the steroid-tarnished Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa all making their first appearances while veterans like Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, and the always notable Jack Morris await their shots.  There is also a former back-to-back MVP in Dale Murphy entering his last year of eligibility, and ballot dwellers like Don Mattingly, Alan Trammell, and Lee Smith who may find themselves in Mr Murphy's shoes one day.  Then there are the "untarnished" newbies that include the likes of Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, and good luck charm, Jeff Conine, who, to his novice credit, has a couple of World Series rings unlike others on this list.  Sadly, I predict just two of these players to finally get their call.

Before I present my predicted list of who will get the most votes, first I would like to write out what my vote would be, if I got one, and why:

1. Craig Biggio-3000+ hits without use of steroids speaks for itself
2. Jack Morris-Its about time to put the best pitcher of the 1980's into the hall of fame, isn't it?
3. Edgar Martinez-The guy's so popular, he has an award named after him.
4. Jeff Bagwell-Look, he never used steroids, lets stop trying to pretend he did.
5. Mark Mcgwire-Yes he roided, but he also came clean and perhaps has suffered enough, what do you say?
6. David Wells-No, I don't expect Wells to ever get into the hall of fame but I would feel terrible if my vote prevented him from at least remaining on the ballot for another year.

Now to how I think the ballot will actually go. As I've said already, I predict two hall of famers from the 2013 crop, keep in mind hall of fame, as marked with an asterisk(*) is 75% of the vote or higher.  On the other end of the ballot are those poor souls who get under 5% and are therefore not welcome back for next year, as marked with a dash(-). So enjoy:

*Craig Biggio      90.4%
*Jack Morris        78.6%

Jeff Bagwell       60.1%
Edgar Martinez  56.2%
Alan Trammell   55.5%
Mike Piazza       53.0%
Lee Smith          51.4%
Tim Raines        50.6%
Fred McGriff      40.8%
Curt Schilling     29.2%
Mark Mcgwire    28.4%
Larry Walker      25.0%
Don Mattingly   21.4%
Kenny Lofton    20.7%
Dale Murphy    19.9%
David Wells      15.6%
Barry Bonds       13.1%
Roger Clemens  12.1%
Rafael Palmeiro  11.7%
Bernie Williams   6.0%
Julio Franco           5.2%


-Sammy Sosa   4.5%
-Shawn Green  4.1%
-Steve Finley     3.8%
-Ryan Klesko    1%
-Mike Stanton      .7%
-Reggie Sanders .3% 
-Sandy Alomar Jr  .1%
-Jeff Cirillo               .1%
-Jose Mesa             .1%
-Jeff Conine            .1%
-Roberto Hernandez 0%
-Aaron Sele                0%
-Royce Clayton          0%
-Todd Walker              0%
-Rondell White           0%
-Woody Williams       0%


Note a few bold predictions:
-Jeff Bagwell, with over 60%, has now solidified a spot in the hall in his near future as everyone who has ever gotten over 60% has eventually been elected into the hall of fame.
-Alan Trammell has a considerable rise in votes, and I think the rise of attention given to him in recent years should amount to this.
-No hall of fame for Barry Bonds, Mark Mcgwire, Roger Clemens, or Rafael Palmeiro, specifically the newbies, Bonds and Clemens, get to sit right beside Palmeiro at the level of just enough to come back.
-Sammy Sosa, on the other hand, is going to be the scapegoat for all steroids related stories and, just like Jose Canseco a few years back, shouldn't even get enough to come back.
-And Jack Morris and Craig Biggio are the only inductees.

How My 2012 Award Predictions Are Looking So Far

How my 2012 predictions are looking so far:

AL MVP: Jose Bautista

11 games in: 9 Hits 2 HR .231/.373/.410

NL MVP: Justin Upton

11 games in: 7 Hits 0 HR .212/.350/.373

AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia

3 games in: 1-0 5.59 ERA 19.1 IP

NL Cy Young: Yovanni Gallardo

3 games: 1-1 4.58 ERA 17.2 IP

Al Comeback Player of the Year: Ichiro Suzuki

13 games in: 15 Hits 1 HR .283/.316/.415 (last year: 184 hits 5 HR .315/.359/.335)

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Erik Bedard

3 games in: 0-3 2.65 ERA 17.0 IP (last year: 5-9 3.62 ERA 129.1 IP)

Relief Man of the Year: John Axford

5 games in: 0-0 7.36 ERA 2/2 Saves/SVO

AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Moore

2 games in: 0-1 5.54 ERA 13.0 IP

NL Rookie of the Year: Tyler Pastornicky

9 games in: 5 HIts 1 HR .167/.219/.367

So it may still be early but so far every pick except for Ichiro's looks awful. 

Fun Facts About Jamie Moyer

On Saturday, April 7, 2012, Jamie Moyer was the Colorado Rockies starting pitcher.  Jamie Moyer, for the record, is 49 years old and is one win away from becoming the oldest pitcher to ever record a win.  In honor of Mr. Moyer, who I've always been a fan of, I've compiled a collection of Jamie Moyer facts I found from all over the internet:

-Jamie Moyer has faced 8.9% of all batters, ever.

-Jamie Moyer was the starting pitcher in the last game at Wrigley Field before lights were installed, lights were installed in 1988, 24 years ago.

-Jamie Moyer made his Major League Debut before half of the current Colorado Rockies Team was even born.

-One third of all current major league managers have batted against Jamie Moyer

-Robin Ventura, current manager of the Chicago White Sox, started playing after Jamie Moyer, has been retired for eight years, and had a hall of fame eligible career; this is good news for Jamie Moyer as Robin Ventura hit .333 against him in 15 plate appearances.

-Current San Diego Padres Manager Bud Black pitched opposite Jamie Moyer in 1990 when Moyer was with the Texas Rangers and Black with the Cleveland Indians.  Moyer went 7 2/3 innings to Black's 5 2/3 in a game the Rangers eventually won in extra innings.  Moyer will most likely pitch against Black's Padres on April 18, 2012, twenty-two years after out pitching Black, himself.

-Not only did Jamie Moyer pitch in in 141 games before the Rockies even existed, he is older than everyone on the inaugural 1993 Rockies team, with the exception of Andres Galarraga.

-With the exception of Jerry Blevins, who was born in 1983, Jamie Moyer made his Major League Debut before every single active homegrown pitcher on the Oakland Athletics was born.

-Jamie Moyer is older than the majority of General Managers currently employed with teams.

 -Jamie Moyer is the only professional baseball player who was alive when JFK got assassinated

-Jamie Moyer debuted the same season as Mark Mcgwire, Fred Mcgriff, Rafael Palmeiro, and Barry Larkin; in the time between Jamie Moyer's debut and five years ago(how long it takes to get onto the Hall of Fame Ballot), Mcgwire hit 583 homeruns, Palmeiro hit 569 home runs and 3020 hits, Mcgriff hit 493 homeruns, and Larkin put together a hall of fame career.

-Along with Omar Vizquel, Jamie Moyer is the only active player who played baseball in the 1980s

-Jamie Moyer made his MLB Debut before 2012 Hall of Fame Candidates Edgar Martinez, Jeff Bagwell, Bernie Williams, Larry Walker, and Juan Gonzalez

-With the exception of Julio Franco, and Roger Clemens(by only a few months), Jamie Moyer will be older than anyone who is eligible for hall of fame induction for the first time in 2013.

-Jamie Moyer's career has spanned five presidencies.

-Jamie Moyer was 23 when his opposing pitcher on April 7, Lucas Harrell, was born.  Moyer had been drafted at this time(1985) but had not yet made his major league debut.

The fact that Moyer is still a starting pitcher in the MLB really is amazing.  Here's to seeing you pitch into your 50's, Jamie.

More 2012 Predictions

AL MVP:

Jose Bautista

NL MVP:

Justin Upton

AL Cy Young:

CC Sabathia

NL Cy Young:

Yovanni Gallardo

AL Comeback Player of the Year:

Ichiro Suzuki (Close second Kendry Morales)

NL Comeback Player of the Year:

Erik Bedard (Close second Buster Posey)

Relief Man of the Year:

John Axford

AL Rookie of the Year:

Matt Moore

NL Rookie of the Year:

Tyler Pastornicky

2012 Season Predictions

AL East:

*Yankees                  94-68
Blue Jays                85-77
Rays                        83-79
Red Sox                 77-85
Orioles                    72-90

AL Central:

*Tigers                   103-59
*Indians                  96-66
Royals                   82-80
White Sox             74-88
Twins                     66-96

AL West:

*Angels                    100-62
*Rangers                  97-65
As                             77-85
Mariners                  71-91


NL East:

*Phillies                   92-70
*Braves                    89-73
Nationals               82-80
Marlins                   74-88
Mets                        71-91

NL Central:

*Brewers               94-68
*Cardinals            87-75
Reds                    80-81
Pirates                 74-88
Cubs                    69-93
Astros                  60-102

NL West:

*Diamondbacks    96-66
Dodgers                84-78
Giants                    83-79
Rockies                 77-85
Padres                  59-103


AL East: Provided the Yankees stay healthy, they should walk away the winners in this division.  I also feel as though Boston is totally irrelevant due to far too many changes, an injured closer, and a new manager.  The Blue Jays should be on the rise if youngsters like Kyle Drabek can make an impact already and the Rays and Orioles will be about the same.

AL Central: The Tigers are the easy champions here but the Indians aren't without their credit.  They may have a couple of holes in their lineup but their pitching, all around, its superb enough to get them second place.  The Royals are getting better and I think its safe to say that the White Sox are getting worse.  As for the Twins, their two best players are too often injured, their third and fourth best players are gone, and their bullpen has been depleted entirely.

AL West: Yes, the Angels have the best rotation and the most solid offense in what may be all of baseball.  The Rangers are good but their starting pitching is lacking, barely, to their rival.  The As and the Mariners are the As and the Mariners…no real need to explain.


NL East: Even though the Phillies lost their two most important relievers, will be with an injured offense for a while, and technically don't even have a left fielder who is major league ready, they still come out on top.  The Braves are only a mid-season trade away from being just as good, provided Tim Hudson stays healthy and the Nationals are due for supremacy at any time now.  The Marlins, I don't feel, have improved enough and the Mets haven't improved at all, although it would be quite a site to see the new Mets bullpen be the shining star of the NL East.

NL Central: The way the Phillies still carry the East despite losing considerable advantages is the way the Brewers still carry the central.  The Brewers may be without Fielder now but Mat Gamel is a proven professional hitter, as is Aramis Ramirez and lets not overlook the offensively minded catcher, Jonathan Lucroy who should only be better.  The Cardinals didn't get better by signing Carlos Beltran, who will be injured far too much, and the Reds, well, I never thought the Reds were good, and they're definitely still not without a closer(And Latos wasn't the answer for a terrible rotation).  The Cubs are rebuilding, the Pirates are a few steps away from being significant, and the Astros are the Astros.

NL West: The Diamondbacks are a great team, there is no doubt in my mind they carry the division. The Dodgers should be able to hold their own and then some now that their best hitter and pitcher have broken out, the Giants still have good pitching and no offense whatsoever and the Rockies still have good offense but poor pitching(Even De La Rosa's return couldn't help them as much as it should).  And the Padres are a sinking ship that Mr Hoyer was smart to jump out of.


Playoffs:

AL Wildcard round:

Indians vs Rangers

Rangers win.

NL Wildcard round:

Cardinals vs Braves

Cardinals win.


AL:

Rangers vs Tigers
Yankees vs Angels

Angels vs Tigers

Angels win.

NL:

Cardinals vs Diamondbacks
Phillies vs Brewers

Brewers vs Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks win.


World Series:

Diamondbacks vs Angels (American League wins All Star Game getting home field advantage).

Angels win in 5.

My Predictions for the Hall of Fame Voting of 2012

What a poor year for the baseball hall of fame 2012 seems to be! When Bernie Williams is the best new name out there, we can look forward to another 2006 or 2008 when one man, or in both those cases, one relief pitcher, barely nudges his way into the hall, and that is only if another 1996 does not happen where no one gets in.  My prediction is another 2006/2008 except it is not a relief pitcher who had long occupied the ballot(Sorry Lee Smith), it is a shortstop.  Yes, with all the hype he has received, there is no doubt in my mind that Barry Larkin will be the sole member of the 2012 Baseball Hall of Fame class, as elected by baseball writers.  Here is how I feel the ballot will play out:

*Barry Larkin 77.6%

Jack Morris 69.3%
Jeff Bagwell 65.7%
Edgar Martinez 58.4%
Lee Smith 49.6%
Tim Raines 41.3%
Alan Trammell 33.6%
Larry Walker 25.5%
Fred McGriff 23.6%
Mark Mcgwire 21.8%
Rafael Palmeiro 16.0%
Don Mattingly 15.8%
Juan Gonzalez 13.8%
Dale Murphy 12.7%
Bernie Williams 5.7%
-Vinnie Castilla 3.8%
-Ruben Sierra 3.6%
-Phil Nevin 2.8%
-Tony Womack 2.1%
-Eric Young 1.9%
-Javy Lopez 0.8%
-Jeremy Burnitz 0.4%
-Brian Jordan 0.2%
-Tim Salmon 0.0%
-Brad Radke 0.0%
-Terry Mulholland 0.0%
-Bill Mueller 0.0%

And there you have it, one, and only one, person is eligible to return in 2013 for a second ballot and that is Bernie Williams.  It is not the last ballot of anyone who isn't a first year candidate and the roiders like Palmeiro, Gonzalez, and Mcgwire see slight increases.  I feel Fred Mcgriff, Jeff Bagwell, and Edgar Martinez are a few years away from their peaks into the hall, and I feel Jack Morris may have a slight chance next year, when he competes with the likes of Craig Biggio and Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.  Otherwise, there is no doubt in my mind that Barry Larkin gets in...I'm looking forward to seeing how close I am.